Forecasts among the eight economists ranged from 3.5% to 7.8%.
Absa Capital's Gina Schoeman said that all eyes would be on festive season retail sales (December 2011) as this would complete the full picture for how the retail sector performed in the fourth quarter of 2011.
Absa Capital expects a rise to 7.7% y/y from 6.8% y/y previously.
"We believe consumer dynamics remain robust - firm real income growth and low debt servicing costs and in support, anecdotal evidence from the listed retail sector over the festive season was upbeat," Schoeman said.
She added that if their December retail sales assumption was correct, 2011 will prove to average 5.9% versus 5.0% in 2010.
"More so, this would provide a good boost to the fourth quarter 2011 GDP - we expect retail sector growth to grow even stronger than the 10.3% q/q saar in the third quarter" she said.
This, together with both mining and manufacturing production q/q saar growth moving back into positive territory in the fourth quarter would certainly provide a kick to overall GDP in the fourth quarter, Schoeman commented.
Standard Bank research strategists, Thabi Leoka and Sibusiso Gumbi, said consumers were expected to have shopped up a storm in December.
"Total credit extension to households picked up by 6.7% y/y in December, from 5.4% y/y in November, and corporate credit extension was also buoyant, rising to 8.2% y/y in December, after easing to 6.8% y/y in November," they noted.
However, they added that with headwinds expected to face consumers in 2012, consumers are likely to trim expenditure.
The December retail trade sales data will be released by Statistics SA at 1pm on Wednesday, 15 February.
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